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The football draw game - hard to find them isn't it? 8 of these are key to winning the British or Australian treble chance , but perhaps you just want to find two or three for a specialised fixed odds bet, maybe in an Australian, Spanish or Italian league. On a typical league weekend in the British football season, there will be 9 scoring football draws on the coupon. Many will have been predictable using a good football draw predictor. No-score football draws add about draws 4-5 per week, and can make a big contribution to multiple dividends.

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How can we pick them?

In the British league season, most teams play near to 'form' - that is, at a fairly consistent (and predictable) standard - but Cup matches are more of a lottery when 'giant killing' happens fairly frequently. These competitions are best avoided if you are serious about winning the football pools. To start, we only bet when the odds are optimal, and that means only on the league games. Betting on cup matches is for fun only, and expect to lose money over the long term. In fact, we don't bet when 'form' is likely to be compromised - e.g. on New Year's Day when the players have been celebrating.

Using a solid football draw prediction system, you will be able to keep track of form and eliminate those matches which are certain home wins - there could be typically 22 home wins on a coupon, many of which will have been easy to predict. As to away wins, these are trickier to predict, and there will be, typically, thirteen or fourteen away wins on the coupon each week.

Supposing we can predict 90% of the home wins - that's roughly 19 matches, plus half the away wins - another 7 matches. So, out of the coupon as a whole, with a reliable football draw predictor we can expect to predict 26 matches (homes and aways). That leaves 23 matches, from which need to find 8 football draws. That has made the challenge a lot easier!

Now, with a good plan or perm, which combines maybe 17 or 18 forecasts - some plans even give a coverage of 24 matches, then you can see that the odds of getting 8 football draws in a line are moving our way. Sure, using a plan means that you sacrifice perfection against greater coverage (after all there are 451 million ways of selecting 8 football draws from 49 matches). You probably will not hit the jackpot, but you will have more frequent wins of lower value, and should be able to move into profit.

So, you can see that an efficient football draw prediction system is essential.

What are the key aspects of a good football draw forecast system?

Well, besides knowing when to stake and when to avoid betting and throwing your money away, you have to be able to analyse form and come up with football draw predictions. When it comes to form, how far back should you go? How will a team which was promoted from the Championship perform in the Premier League (and vice versa)?

Rate the teams

Then, you need to have a consistent way of rating a team's performance - and that needs to take into account the strength of the opposition. This leaves you with a list of teams and performance ratings.

Now you need to look at the forthcoming matches and compare the teams' ratings. Adjust for home advantage, and make any other adjustments you feel are appropriate (new player or manager, injury to a key player?). Then, organise the list in order by likely match outcome. At one end of the list will be most probable home wins. At the other end will be the most probable away wins. In the middle will be the juice - where we find the elusive football draw block.

If we can find 60% of the draws when there are 13 or 14 in the results, then we will have 8 - 9 draws. That's when a good staking plan comes in, to maximise your chances of getting your football draws in one line.

These are a few, but not all of the elements necessary to become a regular winner.

It's important to see that this is a percentage approach, and all you are seeking to do is get the odds on your side and find most of those elusive football draws. A few wins a season should put you into profit, and as always, the devil is in the detail!

(c) 2011 Phil Marks

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